Scenarios examine what-ifs of sprawl

BY JEFF SCHWEERS
FLORIDA TODAY

Looking ahead
The PennDesign Central Florida Study examined what the east Central Florida region would look like in 45 years. According to the study, the seven-county region will grow from 3 million to 7.2 million residents by 2050 -- a 136 percent increase.

ORLANDO - Forty-five years into the future, Central Florida could be a seething mass of drivers spending more time in traffic, going longer distances and breathing poisonous fumes into their lungs as we approach gridlock.

Or it could be a model of efficient planning and progressive thinking, with stress-free commuters taking clean and quiet light rail to and from work or sleek bullet trains to Miami, Jacksonville or Tampa.

The first scenario is what could happen if we continue building more houses connected by more roads, according to a University of Pennsylvania study released Wednesday at Leu Gardens to about 200 Central Florida politicians and planners.

The second scenario is what could be if we shape development by placing a priority on environmental preservation and mass-transit planning coupled with high-density development.

"It takes long-term political clout to keep those things in the budget and keep them alive," said Brevard County Commissioner Sue Carlson, a panelist in a discussion group that followed the presentation.

Professor Jonathan Barnett and the graduate students of the Department of City and Regional Planning at the University of Pennsylvania spent months tabulating data and running extensive computer models to project what the region could look like in 45 years.

Then they looked at where we could be if we do things differently.

They conducted the PennDesign Central Florida Study on behalf of Myregion.org. The planning group of seven east Central Florida counties has been looking at better ways to manage the region's rapid growth and its effects on its citizens, the environment and public services.

Barnett stressed that this was a demonstration of what could be done without politics.

That seemed unrealistic to Brevard County Commissioner Ron Pritchard.

"It's easy to plan without looking at affordability and political consideration," he said. "What they gave us today was food for thought. It was a good academic exercise."

According to the PennDesign study, the seven-county region will grow from 3 million to 7.2million residents by 2050 -- a 136 percent increase. Those residents will consume more than 2 million acres by 2050 -- more than 2.5 times more than the 850,000 acres urbanized today. Developed land will more than double, from 16 percent to 37 percent.

More than 600,000 acres of sensitive lands would be paved over in the process.

And it will cost $116.7 million to provide streets and utilities alone.

Using the "alternative vision," the PennDesign forecasts a future where only 420,000 acres are developed, with another 329,000 redeveloped or infilled at higher densities and 725,000 acres set aside for conservation. All for $90.4 billion.

Duane Defreese, vice president of research at Hubbs-SeaWorld Research Institute, said the presentation was eye-opening. He was particularly pleased that the group placed a premium on land conservation.

"It's a no-brainer," DeFreese said. "Conservation, land acquisition and smart transportation planning are the lynchpins that will drive everything else in development."

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